In Nature there is always a balance. If we take a island as an example we will find it is a relatively contained ecosystem. On the island we put three things - a few packs of wolves, a few hundred bunny rabbits, and lots of vegetation. The bunnies breed fast and it is easy for the wolves to catch them. The bunnies have plenty to eat, the wolves have plenty of bunnies to eat, and everything on the island is in balance.
Well let’s throw a wrench in the works. We discover that the wolves are eating the bunnies too fast. This means that the wolf population starts growing. The balance of bunnies to wolves becomes unhealthy. There are now more wolves on the island than bunnies and in the weeks to come the wolves start to die because of a lack of food. The few bunnies that remain, they hide very well and only come out at night and eat the vegetation next to the rabbit hole. The bunnies will survive the increase in wolves, but only a few bunnies. Now that all the wolves start to starve, we see that 95% of them die. Only a few wolves survive the bunny depression. Once the equilibrium gets established again the bunnies are free to repopulate the island and the wolves are free to eat the growing bunny population again.
Let’s take another look at this island, let’s say the bunnies breed faster then they can be eaten. Now we find that the vegetation is at risk. The bunnies eat everything they can find and the island is swarming with rabbits. The few remaining plants are growing in cracks and in places the bunnies can’t reach. Now the bunnies start to die because of a lack of food. Once 98% of the bunnies die off the remaining 2% find it easier to eat. The grass grows back and the equilibrium of vegetation to bunnies is restored.
Sergey Brin was asked about Click Fraud in 2005 and whether of not it was a problem. Here is his response.
Sergey Brin:
“Sorry to disappoint you but echo meets comments, it’s something we have to work on certainly, and we spend a lot of effort detecting click fraud, eliminating it and so forth, but there is already a long list of protections from Click Fraud.
First, obviously we [Google] do have sort of Fraud Teams just like credit card companies they have there fraud detections things like that, occasionally people get a fraudulent charge but actually it’s quite, quite rare.
Secondly, a lot of our advertisers, in fact most, even though in theory they are bidding per click or things like that, that’s not actually what they care at all about. In fact they care about getting the conversions, making the sales. They have their own internal measurements which are very very precise and they know the exact ROI that they are getting. To them if there were a case of Click Fraud, it would be no different than just sort of disinterested but not Fraudulent Clicks, they care about making the sales happen. And they know they happen, they measure them with ROI tools, most advertisers either use the one we provide or other third party ROI measurement tool.
The other issue you should understand is that the ad system is fairly complex. Aside from all the fraud prevention measures, it’s not necessarily so simple to negatively impact account based on Click Fraud, if you wanted to click on someone else ad site, we did notice that a few times, you would get a few more clicks but also increase there click through rate which would actually lose them the auction.
So there are some fairly complex effects there, that by no means completely protect people, and you’re right, there are motivations especially by the syndication of partners and things like that.
But on the whole the combination of all these things and as I said the inherent all the click fraud fighting and the large team of people we have dedicated to it, I think it keeps it a very low level and the negative advertiser impact due to it is actually quite small.”
Sergey Brin may be smarter than most people - he understands the Biological Equilibrium Theorem. If the click price of bids fall, it is because advertisers value the traffic less. Advertisers measure their ROI on ads, and if the ROI is not high enough they lower their bids to a point were ROI is yielding a good return. (Visual: Think about bunnies hiding in their holes.) Once the Advertisers sees their ROI increasing they are able to bid more, to stay ahead of other bidders. Advertisers that bid too much either go out of business or have better ROIs than other advertisers. In a marketplace with multiple bidders, we find that depressions are rather rare unless something happens to globally effect the marketplace. In the case of the Advertisers, they bid too close to the ROI. Advertisers should constantly be pressured either by other Advertisers or by falling ROI. In the case of advertising, if you lead the pack and your company is always on top you may be paying too much. If your ROI says it is worth it, then by all means bid it like you got it.
Click Fraud is a problem, but it is one that fixes itself. An advertiser always wants to maximize their profit, so they argue they are paying for fraudulent clicks. However the click prices already take into account fraud or disinterested parties. The balance must be there or other advertisers would be paying more for the spot. The advertiser should give up the notion that they will convert 100% of the leads. It simply doesn’t happen in the real world and will never be possible in the virtual world. The only possible semi-solution is Cost Per Action (CPA) advertising. I will not go into the subject much in this post, but there are faults in every system. For example in CPA, sometimes no action can be established on the site, like in the case of an information site which wants to spread its views or an advertiser that prompts customers call to call their 1-800 number to place an order instead of using their web form.